MTG EV Calculator — Australia
MTG Modern Horizons released June 2019 as the first set designed specifically to enter Modern without passing through Standard. The set introduced Force of Negation, Wrenn and Six, and the Snow-covered land cycle, all of which became immediate Modern and Legacy staples. Several cards from this set remain among the most played in non-rotating formats today. Run the calculator below for a current AUD verdict.
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Expected value (EV) in TCG is calculated by multiplying the pull rate of each card rarity by the average secondary market value of cards in that rarity tier, then summing across all cards in a pack and multiplying by the number of packs you are opening.
For Australian players, we use AUD-denominated prices sourced from the Australian secondary market rather than USD TCGPlayer prices, which can differ by 15 to 30 percent after currency conversion and import costs. Our AUD values are based on recent eBay Australia sold listings for cards in each rarity tier.
| Rarity Tier | Pull Rate | Avg per Box (24 packs) | Est. Avg Value AUD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mythic Rare | 1 in 8 packs (12.5%) | ~3 | $20.00–$100.00+ |
| Rare | 1 per pack minimum | ~24 | $2.00–$20.00 |
| Traditional Foil | ~1 in 3 packs | ~8 | Variable, high premium |
| Retro Frame Treatment | ~1 in 4 packs | ~6 | $8.00–$50.00+ |
Pull rates sourced from official Wizards of the Coast product information. AUD card values are estimates based on current Australian secondary market data and will change as the market evolves.
Modern Horizons is the predecessor to the MH2 and MH3 sets and remains exceptionally valuable in the Australian secondary market. Wrenn and Six is one of the most played cards in Modern history and commands AU$40-80+ per copy. Force of Negation is a staple across Modern, Legacy, and Commander. Seasoned Pyromancer, Hogaak Arisen Necropolis (since banned in Modern, but still Commander relevant), and the Snow dual land cycle all maintain ongoing demand. Finding a box at close to AU$180 represents exceptional EV given the density of format staples.
If you are primarily interested in specific singles rather than the experience of opening packs, buying singles on eBay AU will almost always give better value than box EV suggests, because you pay only for the cards you actually want.
EV Disclaimer: Expected value calculations are estimates only. Pull rates are based on official Wizards of the Coast data. Card values are based on recent Australian secondary market prices and change frequently. Actual results from opening packs will vary. This is not financial advice. Always verify current Amazon AU pricing before purchasing as prices fluctuate.