MTG EV Calculator — Australia
MTG Modern Horizons 2 released June 2021 and is widely considered one of the most powerful and valuable MTG sets ever printed. The set introduced Ragavan Nimble Pilferer, Solitude, Endurance, and Grief — the Evoke Elemental cycle — along with retro frame dual land reprints. It remains one of the highest EV MTG products available in Australia. Run the calculator below for a current AUD verdict.
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Expected value (EV) in TCG is calculated by multiplying the pull rate of each card rarity by the average secondary market value of cards in that rarity tier, then summing across all cards in a pack and multiplying by the number of packs you are opening.
For Australian players, we use AUD-denominated prices sourced from the Australian secondary market rather than USD TCGPlayer prices, which can differ by 15 to 30 percent after currency conversion and import costs. Our AUD values are based on recent eBay Australia sold listings for cards in each rarity tier.
| Rarity Tier | Pull Rate | Avg per Box (30 packs) | Est. Avg Value AUD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mythic Rare | 1 in 8 packs (12.5%) | ~3.75 | $30.00–$200.00+ |
| Rare | 1 per pack minimum | ~30 | $2.00–$30.00 |
| Traditional Foil | ~1 in 3 packs | ~10 | Variable, high premium |
| Retro Frame Treatment | ~1 in 4 packs | ~7 | $10.00–$100.00+ |
Pull rates sourced from official Wizards of the Coast product information. AUD card values are estimates based on current Australian secondary market data and will change as the market evolves.
Modern Horizons 2 is in a category of its own. The set was designed entirely for Modern and Legacy formats with zero intention of Standard legality, meaning every card had to be powerful enough to impact competitive play. The result is a set where the floor rare value is significantly higher than any standard set and the mythic cycle (Ragavan, Solitude, Endurance, Grief, Subtlety) contains some of the most played cards in Modern history. Retro frame versions of original dual land reprints (Bayou, Volcanic Island, etc.) can be worth AU$100-400+ each. If you find a Set Booster box at AU$180, the EV calculation is exceptionally favourable by any standard set comparison.
If you are primarily interested in specific singles rather than the experience of opening packs, buying singles on eBay AU will almost always give better value than box EV suggests, because you pay only for the cards you actually want.
EV Disclaimer: Expected value calculations are estimates only. Pull rates are based on official Wizards of the Coast data. Card values are based on recent Australian secondary market prices and change frequently. Actual results from opening packs will vary. This is not financial advice. Always verify current Amazon AU pricing before purchasing as prices fluctuate.