MTG EV Calculator — Australia
MTG Outlaws of Thunder Junction released April 2024 with a Wild West theme featuring returning villain planeswalkers as the central cast. The set contains competitively powerful cards including Oko Thief of Crowns variants and strong Crime-matter mechanics. At AU$180 for a 36-pack Play Booster box, run the calculator below for a current AUD verdict.
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Expected value (EV) in TCG is calculated by multiplying the pull rate of each card rarity by the average secondary market value of cards in that rarity tier, then summing across all cards in a pack and multiplying by the number of packs you are opening.
For Australian players, we use AUD-denominated prices sourced from the Australian secondary market rather than USD TCGPlayer prices, which can differ by 15 to 30 percent after currency conversion and import costs. Our AUD values are based on recent eBay Australia sold listings for cards in each rarity tier.
| Rarity Tier | Pull Rate | Avg per Box (36 packs) | Est. Avg Value AUD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mythic Rare | 1 in 8 packs (12.5%) | ~4.5 | $10.00–$50.00+ |
| Rare | 1 per pack minimum | ~36 | $0.80–$6.00 |
| Traditional Foil | ~1 in 5 packs | ~7 | Variable |
| Breaking News / Borderless | ~1 in 6 packs | ~5 | $5.00–$60.00+ |
Pull rates sourced from official Wizards of the Coast product information. AUD card values are estimates based on current Australian secondary market data and will change as the market evolves.
Outlaws of Thunder Junction stands out for its Breaking News bonus sheet — a 30-card insert set of powerful reprints that can appear in any pack. The Breaking News cards include format staples like Rite of Flame and Collected Company that command significant premiums in foil or special treatments. This bonus sheet significantly lifts the floor EV compared to standard sets. At AU$180 per Play Booster box, OTJ has above-average EV for a 2024 standard release specifically because of the Breaking News sheet.
If you are primarily interested in specific singles rather than the experience of opening packs, buying singles on eBay AU will almost always give better value than box EV suggests, because you pay only for the cards you actually want.
EV Disclaimer: Expected value calculations are estimates only. Pull rates are based on official Wizards of the Coast data. Card values are based on recent Australian secondary market prices and change frequently. Actual results from opening packs will vary. This is not financial advice. Always verify current Amazon AU pricing before purchasing as prices fluctuate.